Posts

Microsoft: Scale, Margin, and Optionality
Microsoft: Scale, Margin, and Optionality
Microsoft is often treated as a company whose best story has already been told: a mature platform, a dominant incumbent, a reliable compounder that transformed itself through cloud and now... Read more...
SMCI: Smuggling Patience to Investors
Super Micro Computer is one of those stories where the market is still trying to figure out what it’s looking at, and whenever that happens, that’s usually where the opportunity lives. Everybody wants to put SMCI into a clean box. They want to call it a hardware company, or a server company, or just another AI name riding momentum. But that’s too simple, and when the market simplifies something that shouldn’t be simplified, it usually gets the valuation wrong. What SMCI really is, is a toll booth sitting in the... Read more...
A Hollywood Horror Posing as a Love Story: Paramount Overpays for Warner Brothers
A Hollywood Horror Posing as a Love Story: Paramount Overpays for Warner Brothers
Paramount’s $110 billion dollar acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery looks less like a bold strategic masterstroke and more like an overpriced, highly leveraged gamble on a structurally declining business. Paramount... Read more...
Bets for March 2026
Starting with cumulative 2026 units of 7.8. All unit totals tracked at the end of each night are YTD cumulative unitsSettled Kalshi betsPlaced on 2/28/2026Who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? No – Position abolished Risk: 2.99 units To Win: 2.02 units March 1     1.    K. Towns o28.5 Pts + Reb (-118) SAS @ NYK • 12:00 PM Risk: 1 unit To Win: 0.85 units     2.    NBA 2-Leg Parlay (+111) S. Castle u6.5 Assists (SAS @ NYK • 12:00 PM) Cavaliers ML -490 (CLE @ BKN • 2:30 PM) Risk: 1... Read more...
Bets for 2/18/26 -end of the month
As of 2/17/2026 end - YTD unit gain: 4.2 units Sportsbooks Date: February 18, 2026 2-Leg Parlay (+103 Total Odds) 1.0 unit risked to win 1.0 unit LOST: Cumulative total as of 2/18/26 end: 3.2 units Leg 1 Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers 8:00 PM CT Vanderbilt Moneyline (-184) Leg 2 Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys 8:00 PM CT Kansas Moneyline (-315)   Date: February 19, 2026 Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks – 6:30 PMPick: Josh Hart Under 7.5 ReboundsOdds: -130Risk: 1.5 unitsTo Win: 1.15 units Houston Rockets... Read more...
Bets for 2/16/2026
Picking Iowa State over Houston tonight: ML at -140. 1 unit. Read more...
January 2026 Letter to Subscribers
January 2026 Letter to Subscribers
January 2026: Sugar HighsTo my subscribers, January was an exceptionally strong month on the wagering side of our business, delivering +17 units of performance. Results were driven primarily by player... Read more...
Bets for 2/15/26
World -158 vs USA Stars — 1.5U on World 4:00 PM CT USA Stripes -130 vs USA Stars — 1U on USA Stripes 4:35 PM CT USA Stripes +112 vs World — 1U on USA Stripes 4:35 PM CT Read more...
Bets for 2/12/26
2.5U – LeBron James Under 30.5 PTS + REB (-108) Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers Risking 2.5U to win approximately 2.31U. Read more...
Bets for 2/11/26
NBA 2-Leg Parlay (2/11) Boston Celtics -700 (vs. Chicago Bulls) P. Achiuwa Over 9.5 Points (Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz)Wager: 2uOdds: +102To Win: 2.04u NBA 2-Leg Parlay (2/11) Miami Heat +1 (vs. New Orleans Pelicans) N. Clifford Under 4.5 Rebounds (SAC vs. UTH)Wager: 1.5uOdds: +102To Win: 1.53u NBA 2-Leg Parlay (2/11) D. Schroder Over 0.5 Rebounds + Assists (vs. Cleveland Cavaliers) Heat +1 (vs. Pelicans)Wager: 1.5uOdds: +129To Win: 1.94u NBA 2-Leg Parlay (2/11) Orlando Magic -450 (vs. Milwaukee Bucks) A. Simons Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (CHI vs. BOS)Wager: 0u (Free... Read more...
Bets for 2/10/26
NBA 2-Leg Parlay  2 units at -104 Pacers +28.5 vs Knicks M. Christie under 3.5 rebounds (DAL @ PHO) NBA 2-Leg Parlay  2.5 units at +102 Clippers +18.5 vs Rockets M. Smart under 3.5 assists (SAS @ LAL) Read more...
Bets for 2/6/2026
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